Swing Trade It: The Fusion of Technical and Analytical Stock Trading

New Deal; New Depression

2009-02-24T23:52:00.005-05:00

I got bored with blogging, but I came back here just to see how things were in my last couple of posts. It looks like I'm pretty accurate to the overall state of the economy with my last post a little under 1 1/2 years ago, but since I'm here, I would like to make a revision:

Due to Barack Obama and Congress' F- rating in knowledge of economics, I will need to revise my low number for the DOW during this economic crisis.

I now predict that the DOW won't hit a low for somewhere in a 6-10 year span as a best case scenario and be somewhere between 2,000 and 4,000 points. The only fortunate thing to this is that by the end of Obama's term, the economy will be in such rough shape that he'll never get re-elected.

Are there any economists out there who are willing to run for president who actually believe in the idea of doing away with this ponzi scheme economy and letting the free market decide interest rates? How about someone who will cut taxes and drastically lower the size of the federal government? It's the only way out of this mess, and soon enough we'll figure it out.

We are far from the bottom of as some have told you...

2007-11-24T10:01:00.002-05:00

At this point I only see the markets going down further, with a decline to at least 7,000 points and perhaps much more.

George Bush has been a terribly upsetting president and is leading us down the road to where Herbert Hoover did when he tried to deal with the oncoming Great Depression. I have a difficult time believing that a fiscally conservative Republican will win in the oncoming election, which will mean more spending in the upcoming years when in fact, we need the opposite. This will lead us to another FDR or another “New Deal.” And even Henry Morgenthau admitted that the New Deal didn’t work in 1939 after the unemployment statistics came out.

Perhaps someone will read this, do their research, and realize the failure that FDR was as a president before it is too late. Historians tells us that Harry Truman did nothing which lead us to the Great Depression, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. In many ways Herbert Hoover was like George Bush in that he was very much anti-capitalism, which isn’t the spin you hear today. He played with the economy too much with stimulus / bailout packages.

If the government wants to act, it needs to act by getting rid of the Federal Reserve System and let the free market decide interest rates. By the federal reserve allowing interest rates to be below what the free market would set them, it creates and artificial bubble in the economy. This kind of bubble never works because it’s run as a Ponzi scheme, and currently we’re living with a Ponzi economy.

The government continuing to play around, spend more and coming up with all of these creative “stimulus packages,” is bringing us closer to an unmitigated disaster. Things will get worse regardless, but the only short-term fix would be to drastically cut spending, cut taxes significantly, do away with the Federal Reserve and run budget surpluses. If you look at the depression of 1920, Calvin Coolidge employed many of these tactics, and they worked.

Eventually the Federal Reserve will find themselves in a corner where they need to raise interest rates aggressively, despite the fact that the economy is falling. If the Federal Reserve fails to act, then we’re headed for a time of hyperinflation only seen in areas of Latin America.

Bottom Line: We got into this mess by borrowing to much money, spending too much money, inflating too much and rejecting the idea of sound money. You need to allow the recovery to take place -- the government will only make it worse. If the government continues to play with the economy, the bond market will eventually go under (probably sometime in 2010-2011), the dollar will eventually roll over and collapse, and we’ll be in an area of hyper-inflation.

Perhaps a year or two down the road we’ll all be living in a utopia and this will look foolish, but if not, maybe a historian will somehow come across this and start to realize the “New Deal,” was a failure that FDR gave us instead of the Kool-Aid they’ve been fed. You can look at GDP all you want, but GDP isn’t an accurate representation of the economy because it includes government spending and doesn’t take inflation into account.

The Sky Is Falling

2007-11-08T20:03:00.000-05:00

Did anyone else see that implosion today on the technology sector? I think someone overlooked Apple’s 2 million sales of the Leopard operating system. Or did they?

The markets typically work out planning about 6 months in advance so perhaps this little slump hit the technology sector within that time span. Being that it was growth that was spoken against today, it would make sense that it would be the largest growing companies that would take the largest hit.

So what now? The last news on inflation (wage increase being the biggest one) gave us no reason to believe we are headed for inflation which is good news. This all but clears that way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25 or 50 basis points.

A large reason for the drop was due to poor GM earnings which were expected. The odd thing is that GM seems to always go down on earnings whether it is good or bad. People still view GM as a major backbone of this economy and that lead to the major downfall so far this week (not that Bernanke helped it any).

Not Even ExxonMobil (XOM) Can Handle High Oil Prices

2007-11-03T22:32:00.000-05:00

ExxonMobil (XOM) has closed below the lower band by 0.8% hinting that a downside breakout is possible. The Bollinger Bands are 14.5% wider than normal. The current width of the bands alone does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices but last Thursday we saw Exxon break it's level of support around $90.50 giving support to this theory.

At this point I see the stock headed downward to around $85 before it can start picking up steam once more. The good economic news didn't do anything to strength the US dollar last Friday so don't expect anything positive on that end anytime soon. Since the US dollar and oil prices are directly tied together, don't be surprised if we oil rise even further.

Ok, so I'm finally in on Google...

2007-11-02T22:07:00.000-05:00

Or perhaps Google is a better way to put it. In any case, I saw this stock at $200 and said it was too expensive. I saw it at $300, $400, $500 and still thought it was too expensive to pick up. Before I knew it, Google hit $700 and it was still too expensive for my liking.

All of a sudden, Google at $200 isn't looking too bad! So to cut a long story short, I just couldn't help but to get in. Lets face it, advertising isn't going away and with Google looking to get into the wireless game, who knows where they'll end up.

I was watching CNBC this afternoon around 3:00 PM EST and Jim Cramer said something about looking at the financial data and pending on how you look at it, Google is a relatively cheap stock at $700 and might be a $1200 stock. I personally think that if Google is trying to take over the world, I might as well have a stake in it.

Stock Brokerages

2007-10-27T15:17:00.000-05:00

I might be looking for one but I haven’t decided yet. If you’ve been reading me for a while, you know that I use Zecco now. I’ve used Zecco for a while and have loved them dearly but recently they’ve employed this bait & switch technique to their most loyal customers.

Instead of getting 40 free trades a month and $3.50 there after, it’s now 10 free trades a month and $4.50 thereafter. In order to get 10 free trades, you need to have an account balance of $2,500. The minimum balance makes perfect sense to me, you can't make money giving free trades on someone trading penny stocks with only $1 in their account. I could perhaps see them even raising this to $5,000 or $10,000, but I don't see how you can say you have the same "free trade" policy when you're now 75% less free than before.

The balance is no problem for me, but I’m not sure how Zecco can continue like this. Large brokers such as Bank of America offer 30 free trades a month for a $25,000 account balance. So Zecco is after the smaller guy while Bank of America wants the people with the big bucks. Personally, I think there’s a lot more money to be made with people that have $25,000+ accounts instead of $2,500 - $25,000 range.

I haven’t been one of the more vocal in the Zecco community to show displeasure to this pricing change as I believe Zecco should be able to do whatever they want. I’m not going to complain, but I don’t see this being a practical business model and I am as "free" to leave as everyone else is.

If I go to Bank of America and raise my account to $25,000 I’ll have 30 free trades and clear to have pattern day trader status… which is a good thing. If I stay on Zecco I can have 10 free trades a month and $4.50 thereafter but keep a low valued account (<$10,000). I can go to a deep discount brokerage like MB Trading and just pay a $1/trade flat out. Or I can say with my original brokerage, Scottrade, and pay $7/trade and get great fills.

Decisions, decisions…

Slow Week On Wall Street As Fed Nears Interest Rate Decision

2007-10-27T14:47:00.000-05:00

Home builders were up huge last week after CFC announced that better times were ahead of them. Also, we saw Halliburton pull back after taking a punch last week as I previously expected. Some skeptics thought the price of oil was about to take a tumble but as I noted here, the price of oil is traded in dollars... not yen, not yawn... dollars. If the value of the dollar continues to go down, why should we expect anything but the price of oil to go up?

Here is another daily chart of Apple (AAPL). The first carrot was at a volume spike on negative volume. I was skeptical as far as what Apple would do considering that it it went up a little bit at a time on very little volume. Now we see the latest volume spike on Apple's latest earnings which is good news for Apple stock.

I took this time to buy more Apple before close on Friday seeing only good things ahead (and the release of Leopard). We have first Euro iPhone sales coming out next month I believe. In December we have Christmas sales and soon after we have Mac World where they always announce a new product. No one knows how to hype a product like Steve Jobs so hopefully my latest buy-in will pay dividends shortly. I would like to see Apple in the lower 200's sometime February next year.

Some people look forward to Halloween for candy, but me, I'm looking forward to seeing what Ben Bernanke has in for us (October 31st) this should be an interesting one.

Stocks For Next Week

2007-10-19T21:22:00.000-05:00

I started scanning over several stocks on both the NYSE and NASDAQ looking for buying and selling signals. It didn't take too long before I realized that several stocks triggered a downtrend due to the massive sell off last week.

In any case, here are a few that I came up with before I halted my list. On days such as last Friday, I would look more at the stocks which trigger a buy due to their ability to break a severely down-trending market.

On Thursdays, I plan on posting buy and sell signals for securities. It's a lot of work, but it's worth it because Friday, I believe, is a good day to pick up on stocks which are starting to trend (and that people will pick up on Monday morning). I was once told never to create a new position on Fridays but I don't believe this person is trading anymore.

Buy Signals: ANH, ANN, ASX, AWRE

Short Signals: AB, ABCB, AEC, AINV, ALEX, ALK, ALTH, ANST, ANSW, AOI, ATB, ATO, ATV, AVB, AVRX, AXA, AYN, AZ, AZZ, BABY, BANR, BBSI, BDN, BDV, BEBE, BECN, BEZ, BFF, BFIN, BKD, BKH, BMD, BRE, BXP, CAL

Happy Black Monday

2007-10-19T17:26:00.000-05:00

Well maybe it's not so happy if you're like me and picked up Halliburton (HAL) yesterday only to see it plummet today. It's ok though, because I like Halliburton even more at these lower price levels. As we all know, oil prices are sky high but as we don't know, Halliburton has earnings coming out before the opening bell on Monday. I'm a little concerned considering the insider trading going on, but I still consider Halliburton to be a good company with a lot of potential upside.

In case you didn't know, this is the 20th anniversary of the black Monday crash. If you're here wondering why the markets tanked, that's really the only reason which I can find. I'm sure there was some profit taking within some companies, but as a whole, it was mainly out of CNBC causing a free fall. Come Monday, I'm sure you'll see the market recover some on some sectors, particularly computer hardware.

We had a rough day today on Wall Street, but keep in mind that it's never as bad as it looks when things are bad; and it's never as good as it looks when things are good. I hope you didn't exit many of your longer-term positions today (unless they hit a stop - in that case, good for you). But if you liked Halliburton at $41, you should like it even more at these price levels.

Bottom Line: There was no real reason for the markets to take a jab like they did today, with the exception of CNBC talking about recession the entire day. On days where there is no bad news and the markets are in a free fall, it's usually a good time to look at picking up someone of the stronger companies that pulled back due to profit taking as these will be the first to recover when the market does. I expect early next week to see some recovery on short coverings.

Software for Assessing Risk in the Stock Market

2007-10-17T19:16:00.000-05:00

So for the time being you've had your total portfolio sitting there willing to risk but a certain percentage on a certain stock. You have a good idea of what you want your stop price to be; however, you also notice that your stop price percentage is different from the total amount that you're willing to lose.

For example, you have a stock that is valued at $10/share. You have a good feeling that if the stock loses $9, it will be in a total free fall and it's all down hill from there. You have a total portfolio of $10,000, but you don't want to lose more than 5% of your total portfolio on a certain security.

Well, if you invested all $10,000 in that security, you would be risking a 10% loss if you let the stock slip from $10 to $9 (where you thought the stock lost support). So what you really want to do, is risk only $5,000 of that $10,000 portfolio. This was actually a really easy math equation because the numbers are easy and we can do those in our head without problem. But what about when you have a portfolio of $17,420 and you have a stock at $17.63 and you find support at $16.74 wanting to lose only 1.5% of your overall portfolio on that security?

This is why I created my Stock Risk Management application. You can download this little utility free of charge by scrolling down the right side of this page and click on the link. There is no charge, but if you want to pay off my car payment, student loans, buy me a house... Ferrari... you're free to do so. :)

Testing Shorts in Prudential (PRU) and Toll Brothers (TOL) Ahead of News

2007-10-16T17:03:00.000-05:00

I have short positions in Prudential (PRU) and Toll Brothers (TOL) ahead of the economic news dealing with housing starts and the consumer price index coming out tomorrow.

As predicted earlier and post on October 8th, Apple (AAPL) has officially announced that their new operating system, Leopard, will be released on October 26th sending the stock up about 2.7%. I remain bullish on Apple going into the holidays and plan on buying more shares at some point in the near future on the next sign of slippage.

In after hours, we're seeing tech stocks go higher lead by the earnings of IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC) and Yahoo (YHOO). It should be interesting to see what kind of a day we're in for tomorrow. Several people expect weak economic news but with the drive in the tech sector, we might see a bit of a clash between the NYSE and NASDAQ.

Looking ahead to the week of Ocotober 15th 2007

2007-10-15T06:22:00.000-05:00

Events for October 15 - October 19
10/16/2007: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
10/17/2007: CPI, Core CPI, Housing Starts, Crude Inventories
10/18/2007: Leading Indicators

Ex-Dividend Dates for October 15 - October 19
10/15/2007: EOG Resources (EOG), General Growth Properties (GGP), Morgan Stanley (MSJ),
10/16/2007: N/A
10/17/2007: Lowe's (LOW), Perkin Elmer (PKI), Procter & Gamble (PG)
10/18/2007: Apache (APA), C.R. Bard (BCR), Caterpillar (CAT), CVS Caremark (CVS)
10/19/2007: N/A

Confirmed Earnings for October 15 - October 19
10/15/2007: Citigroup (C), Eaton (ETN), Mattel (MAT)
10/16/2007: Forest Laboratories (FRX), Intel (INTC), IBM (IBM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), KeyCorp (KEY), Linear (LLTC), Regions Financial (RF), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)
10/17/2007: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Altria Group (MO), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Comerica (CMA), E*Trade (ETFC), eBay (EBAY), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), Northern Trust (NTRS), Sovereign Bancopr (SPTN), Allstate (ALL), Coca-Cola (KO), United Technologies (UTX), Washington Mutual (WM)
10/18/2007: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), American Standard (ASD), Bank of America (BAC), Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), Dow Jones & Co (DJ), Eli Lilly (LLY), Google (GOOG), Pfizer (PFE), SanDisk (SNDK), Southwest Airlines (LUV), The Hershey Company (HSY), The McGraw Hill Companies (MHP)
10/19/2007: 3M Company (MMM), Boston Scientific (BSX), Caterpillar (CAT), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Honeywell (HON), Wachovia (WB), Xerox (XRX)

US Dollar Depreciating in Value

2007-10-14T01:44:00.000-05:00

Here are a couple of interesting charts to look at. The first chart is the value of the US dollar and the second chart is of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, both charts ranging from 2000 up until early October of 2007.

I throw this subject out there for the people who are worried about the US economy while the dollar continues to go to shambles. Firstly, I think that this is a low point in the value of the dollar and it will rise; now however, we are in very interesting times. As the value of the US dollar decreases, we are seeing record exports to foreign countries. These record exports are turning into profits for companies and in turn going in the pockets of traders, 401ks, 403bs, ROTH IRAs and other investors in the US economy.

So how did this all happen to begin with? A lot of people blame the president, and they couldn't be any more misguided nor uneducated. The fact of the matter is that no matter who the president is, they really have very little control over anything monetary in this country (which is probably a good thing). Do you recall how Bernanke didn't cut interest rates for more than a year? Well, now a lot of foreign money has come pouring into US treasuries and bonds and the US dollar isn't worth as much - now we're paying all of these off which is leading to a decrease in the national debt.

So this is all great right? Well, you really need to look at things from all angles before coming to any conclusion. Oil is traded and paid for in dollars, but middle eastern companies spend their money in Europe. If the middle eastern companies get a bad rate when they convert the dollar into Euros/Pounds, they will have to charge more for their oil to get an equal exchange in Europe. Since World War II, the dollar/oil has dominated the global economic market. With high oil prices due to a weak dollar, I think this is where the interesting times come in to play...

Has anyone looked into companies that produce solar power recently? If I'm wrong, and the US dollar hasn't reached it's bottom while oil continues to rise, I think we'll have a lot of innovation in the future perhaps putting the middle east out of business. I don't see this being a bad thing for either the global market nor the environment and quite frankly, it's about time. A lot of skeptics out there believe that somehow big business monopolies in the oil market will find a way to suppress innovation and keep oil a necessity in our economy. I wonder if these people are the same ones that are still using America Online as a dial up provider...

Inflationary Worries.... OMG!?!

2007-10-11T15:22:00.000-05:00

By now you've already heard about this enough that you're sick of it I'm sure. Like most everyone else, you come to me for commentary and not the fine (boring) details of the matter.

My post from a couple days ago has some validity to it now. Apple shook a lot harder than a lot of other companies losing around 6% from their high at one point earlier in the day before pulling back. I am still rather bullish on Apple going into the holiday season no less.

My take on the whole matter is that if the fed decides not to cut interest, it won't matter a whole lot for certain sectors. Home builders, mortgage companies and other companies directly effected by the housing market will take a pinch I'm sure. But with the weak U.S. dollar, I believe that foreign sales will end up being higher than in previous years which in all likelihood will mean good things going into the holiday season for retail.

Oil is a commodity also less likely to suffer keeping the interest rates where they are. The summer season is over so people aren't going to cut back on travel. You still need to get to where you're going, heat your home among other things. I believe it is for this among other reasons why Halliburton (HAL) continued to remain above par despite the bad news coming today.

S&P 500 Closes At All Time High

2007-10-09T16:19:00.000-05:00

Both the Dow and S&P 500 reached record highs today on a hint from the fed that they're not done cutting interest rates yet.

I remain cautious on days such as this because investors often times over-react to good news as they do to bad new. I expect a slight pull back tomorrow sometime between 11:30AM and 2:00PM EST before the buyers are back in charge. I don't expect any significant drop in value of the S&P 500 anytime between here and the end of the holiday season and remain bullish mid-term.

Likewise, I am short on a small position going into close but am covering myself with a stop loss around 1% anticipating a mild sell-off for price correction and profit taking from today. Mid-term, I plan on making some conservative moves buying into the S&P 500 leading into the next federal reserve policy meeting on October 31st. November hasn't historically been one of the best months for the S&P 500, but amidst some of the events going on, this might end up worth investing in.

I believe that now is a good time for the more conservative investors to start shifting out of savings accounts and into stocks. Take note as to how I said shift, I think dumping everything in all at once is a very bad investment decision. If you're looking to trade that's one thing, but an investment should be shifted in for dollar cost averaging reasons.

The chart on the right shows a breakdown month by month of the S&P 500's past performance.

Apple's (AAPL) Set To Release New OS

2007-10-08T13:10:00.000-05:00

Rumor has it, Apple is set to release their new operating system, 10.5 (Leopard), on or around Friday, October 26. Later, we'll be seeing sales of the iPhone in Europe and holiday sales in December - January.

It seems like this is a bullish time period for Apple. Currently the only thing that bothers me about Apple is the weak volume on the stock. As you can see, the last real spike in volume came on a downward trend for Apple and we're currently rising on weak volume.

I'm not sure exactly what to make of this one. On one hand I see a lot of good things happening for Apple as previously mentioned, but on the other I look at the chart and shrug my shoulders. Perhaps we'll see green volume spikes after Leopard and iPhone sales while it rises cautiously now.

The iPhone is destined to fail in Canada however, and perhaps not a lot of people know this. Rogers is the only GSM provider in Canada and they charge exorbitant data rates. Here in the United States, you can get a good unlimited data plan for about $20/month and the iPhone for about $399 with a fee of $59/month with all the bells in whistles. In Canada, as the Loonie is near parity with the USD, they're looking at a much more costly iPhone and an monthly fee of hundreds of dollars a month.

Looking ahead to the week of October 8th, 2007

2007-10-07T02:55:00.000-05:00

Events for October 8 - October 12
10/10/2007: Crude Inventories
10/11/2007: Initial Claims, Trade Balance
10/12/2007: Retail Sales, PPI

Ex-Dividend Dates for October 8 - October 12
10/09/2007: Bank of America (BAC), National City (NCC)
10/10/2007: BB&T (BBT), Genworth Financial (GNW), Morgan Stanley (MS), Pitney Bowes (PBI), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), Vornado Reality (VNO), Whole Foods Market (WFMI)
10/11/2007: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Citigroup (C), Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co. (WWY)
10/12/2007: Bear Stearns (BSD), Gap Inc. (GPS)

Confirmed Earnings for October 8 - October 12
10/8/2007: Yum! Brands (YUM)
10/9/2007: Alcoa Inc (AA)
10/10/2007: Costco (COST), Host Hotels & Resorts (HST), Monsanto Company (MON)
10/11/2007: M&T Bank (MTB), Pepsi (PEP), Safeway (SWY), SLM Corp (SLM)

Strong Week For Home Construction

2007-10-06T20:05:00.000-05:00

Home construction lead the way for a very positive week on the markets. 10 stocks in this industry shared double digit gains with Meritage Homes (MTH), Ryland Group (RYL) and KB Home (KBH) leading the sector with gains of 22.17%, 18.01% and 17.32% respectively.

The job report which came out Friday was very positive for the markets. CNBC analysts believe this was a good enough report to fight off recession, but not so good that the feds wouldn't consider lowing interest rates. My personal belief is that the economy is strong and the federal reserve is done cutting interest rate for the time being. This could mean home builders will be pulling back a bit after the next federal open market committee statement on October 31st.

I believe we will see a cutback in the housing / mortgage market next week after showing strong gains for no fundamental reason. Beazer Homes (BZH), WCI Communities (WCI) and Standard Pacific Corp (SPF) are the cheapest stocks in this sector if you're looking for make quick high percentage gains. Computer Hardware was the leading sector last Friday so I'm curious to see if it will continue it's bullish run or if we will see a slight cutback / profit taking.

CARDICA, INC. (CRDC)

2007-10-05T20:05:00.000-05:00

This really is an amazing little company that not many people know about. The system this company developed is called the C-Port Flex Anastomosis System. I'm sure they spent just as much time coming up with a name as they did the procedure it performs -- a closed-chested heart bypass surgery.

I originally heard about this company earlier this month when they had come out with the innovative procedure for heart bypasses. I thought a lot of it at the time, but never bought into the company. I kind of forgot about the company for a little bit until we saw it start to run into close on Thursday. I saw that the stock was up quite a bit without any news that day so I was considering a short - thankfully it never got filled as the stock continued to soar.

I looked into Cardica again only to find out it was that little $5 stock that I was reading about earlier in the month which was only up 70% at the time. Now, a few days later, we're looking at roughly a 240% gain. Cardica recently showed up at a small cap growth stock conference and they're really showing a lot of promise going into the future.

Zecco "Free Online Trading" Starts to Lose It’s Appeal

2007-10-01T16:10:00.000-05:00

Not that it has lost its appeal to the average investor who trade less than 10 times/month, but to those of us active traders, it most certainly has. Perhaps it will be one of you 537 viewers out there (at least according to my statistics) will be able to speak reasonably to knock the commissions down for active traders.

For those of you active traders out there on TradeStation testing new ideas on Zecco with small accounts, you will probably be testing even less now.Our current $0.01/share trades on TradeStation are far less than $4.50/trade. I was hoping to close down my other account after Zecco came up with a slick platform but now it doesn’t look like that will be happening. Personally, I’d rather keep the $100/month data feed eSignal provides and get my own data rather than pay $4.50/trade. Zecco is still a pretty slick deal for those of you investing (as opposed to trading), but to those of us actively trading... it's a little pricy.

This reminds me of the old Scottrade days where I used to trade for $7/trade. Such a painful thought for non-millionaires. There is a good side to this however.

I'll need to work on my new theories even more now than ever as I have until the end of December to fine-tune everything to get back up to par. I’m not sure if I'll stay with Zecco after the new price changes go into effect but TradeStation's $1/trades sounds awfully appealing at this point. Hopefully you’ll be hearing from me a lot more between now and then.

If I leave it won't be on bad terms. I've always found their staff to be helpful, but I find that they simply don't meet my needs anymore. A trading platform would be nice, but I didn't join for a nice trading platform.

GM Strike Ends

2007-09-26T18:29:00.000-05:00

I've had some really bad trades this week. It started with shorting CCU (Clear Channel Communications) and then minutes after they announced a potential buyout offer.

The next day I shorted GM anticipating an extended strike. I was planning on buying to cover the next day but then they announced the strike was over. Don't these union workers know how to fight for anything anymore? Oh well, live an learn. I've had my ups and downs before and this has been a downer for me.

I think I might set up some guidelines for myself to try and hold stocks for a longer period of time while I continue to engineer this new form of trading I'm trying to get into. I find myself trying to day trade stocks when I really want to swing. So for example, if a stock is trading above it's 200 DMA and it doesn't have bad news, I won't allow myself to sell it for at least 24 hours. I think this might get me in the mindset of holding a stock for more than an hour or two. Stocks that have positive divergence (MACD) and above 200 DMA you usually don't need to worry about short term anyway.

I won't count these two trades against my new philosophy since I believe it to be more of a bad luck streak than anything.

Fed Slashes Rates by 50 Basis Points

2007-09-19T05:55:00.000-05:00

I'll start off by being a critic and say this is ridiculous right from the start.

I don't think it's the federal reserve's role to watch the backs of businesses who give out loans irresponsibly to people who cannot afford to pay them back. Nor do I think it's the role of the federal reserve to cover for the people who take out those loans (irresponsibly) whom cannot afford to pay them back. I wish Bernanke had stood up to the big mouths on television (Cramer in particular) and kept things where they were.

Can you imagine what would've happened had the federal government decided to step in and save all of these tech companies from losing value so investors wouldn't lose their cash? Ridiculous. Cramer should keep his mouth shut and the government should let companies go under (specifically airlines) and let companies and individuals take responsibility for their actions.

Looking ahead to the week of September 17th, 2007

2007-09-15T21:09:00.000-05:00

First, here are the movers and shakers by industry for the past week:

Events for September 17 - September 21
9/17/2007: Producer Price Index
9/18/2007: Federal Reserve policy meeting
9/19/2007: Consumer Price Index, Crude Inventories, Housing Starts
9/20/2007: Leading Indicators

X-Dividend Dates for September 17 - September 21
9/17/2007: DTE
9/18/2007: IFF, OMC, SNV, TIF
9/19/2007: ATI, CB, CINF, HNZ, MBI, TROW
9/20/2007: DDR, GE
9/21/2007: PHM

Picked Up Alcoa Inc. (AA)

2007-09-14T15:28:00.000-05:00

Today Alcoa announced a regular quarterly dividend of 14 cents per share. Alcoa was also featured on Motley Fool as one of the top 4-star stocks. In after hours at this point the stock has dipped about 1% since my purchase price of $35.49 (apparently on profit taking) but we'll see what it does on Monday morning. I expect people who took the day off on Friday to be bidders on Alcoa from this news.

Who is Connect-A-Jet? (Pink Sheet: CAJT)

2007-09-13T17:49:00.000-05:00

One of my readers sent me a e-mail asking who this company was. I did a fair amount of research before determining how long I was going to hold their stock. If you go on Yahoo! Finance you'll see quite a few press releases from CAJT which generates a lot of interest.

Last Wednesday, Connect-A-Jet issued a press release saying "Connect-A-Jet.com (CAJT) Announces: Business Air & Aero Jet Services Join CAJT Charter Program Increasing CAJT Reservation Capabilities by over $58 Million in Aircraft Inventory." Neither Business Air nor Aero Jet Services have confirmed this release making me doubt the validity of Connect-A-Jet. So who is Connect-A-Jet? Nobody knows, they're Pink Sheet after all and once you go there, most likely you stay there.

Another website admits deep down in their disclaimer that the owner was paid 100,000 shares of CAJT for hyping the stock. I tend to think that Connect-A-Jet is press release shell rather than a company with real financial backing. This is a classic pump & dump stock in my opinion. Traders should be cautious and investors should keep away.

CONNECTAJET.COM, INC (Pink Sheet: CAJT)

2007-09-11T16:20:00.000-05:00

The only stock I traded from Monday until Friday of last week was CAJT.

Looking at my brokerage, I see that I had purchases at $2.03, $2.10 and at $2.14 before I sold it all at $2.15. The next day, CAJT went higher and I made purchases at $2.26 and $2.38 before selling it at $2.50 the following Monday morning after it gapped up.

I sold my shares Monday morning because I felt as if the stock had already gone high enough and would need to go through a correction before pushing higher. I don't have time to watch the stock and sell it in a blink, so I decided to take my profits and run.

Little did I know that CAJT would run all the way up to $3.00 before crashing all the way back down to $2.20 and finally closing at $2.25 this afternoon. Some people are critics and and say that I should have held instead of selling it at $2.50 on the way up, but these are probably the same people that picked up shares at $2.90, $3.00 and continue to hold. Enjoy the free fall. Nobody ever went broke by taking a profit.

I'm not sure if I'm getting back in this one but I want to see a major momentum shift and the formation of support and resistance levels before having any positions in CAJT. Note the disclaimer at the top: "Pink Sheet."

X-Dividend For Next 2 Weeks

2007-09-02T17:39:00.000-05:00

X-Dividend Date (9/6/2007): BAX, BNI, CME, CEG, ESV, FDX, KFT, BWN, NKE, NTRS, OXY, PPL, PEG, RAI, TRV, UPS, VFC, XL

X-Dividend Date (9/10/2007): APC, CA, CPV, CI, HPQ, NWS, PSA

X-Dividend Date (9/11/2007): BJS, FIS

X-Dividend Date (9/12/2007): MO, AKF, AKT, AFF, ADP, BDK, RBV, CCE, CMA, FDO, FHN, GCI, GMS, HBAN, JCI, LEG, M, MLG, BEM, MOT, OSM, SII, TXT, UNN, UST

X-Dividend Date (9/13/2007): EMN, EQR, RF

X-Dividend Date (9/14/2007): ECL

Harte-Hanks Chart

2007-09-02T02:27:00.000-05:00

This is the HHS chart, as promised. You can click the chart to make it larger and it'll probably make more sense to you. This chart is for within the time frame of when I purchased the stock which was a bearish day overall (although popped the next).

As you can see, the stock dipped after the initial announcement that they were going to be giving out a dividend. This is most likely due to the overall bearish nature of the market on the given day. Nonetheless, the stock picked up interest the next day as people were learning the news in a very steady upward trend. The following morning the stock gapped downward on profit taking but rebounded quickly.

The black horizontal line is going across the chart is the price the stock was at when the dividend was announced. As you can see, the stock went up to around that point the following day where it found resistance. So now I'm wondering if the stock went up on the day following the dividend announcement because of the dividend, or if it was merely correcting its self from a sluggish day on the markets.

For what you can't see, it appears as if the stock has continued to use that line as a short-term resistance point. We'll see what happens as the stock approaches the x-dividend date and look for patterns in stocks that show similar news in the future.

Sold SCON @ $8.14

2007-08-31T12:05:00.000-05:00

It's about time I get a real winner this week. I made a total profit on this one of $0.21 or 2.65%.

Total Profit Since 8/17: 12.27%

Sold ESLR @ $8.84 & Picked up SCON @ $7.93

2007-08-30T19:30:00.000-05:00

Today I sold ESLR @ $8.84 for a 0.68% gain. I picked up SCON at the end of the day at $7.93 which is totally getting crushed in after hours (down about 3%... we'll see what it does by morning).

Total Profit Since 8/17: 9.37%

Sold HHS @ $24.06 & Picked up ESLR @ $8.78

2007-08-29T16:01:00.000-05:00

0.25% gain... I'll be posting a chart of this one on the weekend when I get the time. Crazy, I should've held it.

Total Profit Since 8/17: 8.63%

Picked up Harte-Hanks (HHS)

2007-08-28T15:58:00.000-05:00

Today I picked up Harte-Hanks Inc (HHS) @ $24 after they announced a regular quarterly cash dividend of 7 cents per share (x-div 9/6). The stock took a beating until it closed (@ $23.97) as everyone else did but I see no reason for this one to tumble.

I am going to sell this one early, but use it as a prescient for all future stocks I purchase that just announce regular quarterly dividends.

Going over the past week...

2007-08-26T22:15:00.000-05:00

I really only had one good trade last week in this portfolio, that being SNDK. Some of the other ones had marginally small losses while another one notably had a rather small gain (SAPE).

After looking over things a bit I realized that if I had done trailing stop losses on my winners (stocks that gapped up), I would've further driven my profit higher (particularly SAPE by a couple of percentage points). On the opposite end, I noticed that the stocks that went down a little ways, also ended up going at least up to the purchase price. I think this is because of the nature of the trade -- I was trading on good news so there was no reason for it to go down unless the stock was overbought the previous day.

So I think what I'm going to aim to do is guess what a stock is going to do at open and if it's going to gap up, I'll try a trailing stop loss (if possible... I can only to VTSL on 100 shares or more). Or if the stock is gapping down I'll try a Stop Limit order to re-sell the stock a penny or two above my purchase price to cover any SEC fees or whatever.

I won't be able to trade tomorrow but we'll see how it goes on Tuesday.

Sold Seagate Technology

2007-08-24T16:05:00.000-05:00

Sold Seagate @ $24.70 (-0.2%)

Stay tuned for this Sunday evening when I evaluate all of my trades and look for means of improving my performance overall.

Total Profit Since 8/17: 8.36%

Picked up Seagate Technology

2007-08-23T19:57:00.000-05:00

Today I picked up Seagate Technology at a market price of $24.75. At the present time, it appears as if the stock is down to $24.50 in after hours trading. The stock closed down yesterday so the 3 day rule isn't in play for this one. I will probably end up selling out early (at either profit or loss) and look for some better picks (non-NYSE ones) for the weekend.

Fridays tend to be a day of low volume as several traders choose to work only 4 days a week leaving the rest of us good buying opportunities. We'll see what we can find then.

Nothing over the past couple days...

2007-08-22T15:01:00.000-05:00

I tried to pick up LOCM and TOPT today but my limit prices were both off never reached and both are subject to taking hits due to profit taking (as they have had very little pullback during the day). We'll try again tomorrow.

On Zecco...

2007-08-21T19:24:00.000-05:00

Thanks to one of my blog readers for noticing my name on the front page of Zecco and shooting me a quick e-mail to tell me about my fame ~~and fortune~~.

For those of you who don't know, Zecco is a commission free brokerage for upto 10 trades a day and 40 trades a month... only $3.50 a trade there after. There is no catch; however, they don't give you the tools and platforms that other brokerages give you. I test a lot of new strategies on here since I can trade very small amounts and make small profits instead of trading small amounts and getting eaten alive in commission.

If you're in Zecco feel free to join my group! The only requirement I have is that you have sharing enabled so everyone can see the stocks you buy and the percentage of capital invested in them. It doesn't show your capital, just the percentage you put into each stock. This way we can all laugh at the stupid trades we make together. :)

Sold SAPE @ $5.91

2007-08-21T18:04:00.000-05:00

This one is really shameful. I sold this one just minutes before the stock popped up 2%. Unfortunately, due to conditions outside of the markets I had to place an order to sell at the market opening price and only made 2 cents. I really wish I had time to wait for the first 5 minute bar before selling. One cent trailing stop losses here I come.

Daily Profit: 0.34%
Total Profit Since 8/7/07 = 8.58%

Sold KNX, SNDK picked up SAPE

2007-08-20T19:52:00.000-05:00

Today I sold KNX @ $19.29 (-0.2%) and SNDK @ $54.42 (+1.53%). This brings me to a total daily profit of 1.33%.

Total Profit Since 8/7/07 = 8.27%

I also picked up Sapient Corporation (SAPE) @ $5.89

Picked up Knight Transportation (KNX) and SanDisk Corporation (SNDK)

2007-08-17T18:17:00.000-05:00

Today I picked up KNX @ $19.33 and SNDK @ $53.60. Have a nice weekend everyone.

Sold AMCC and LUB

2007-08-15T16:47:00.000-05:00

LUB @ $9.93 (-0.2%)
AMCC @ $3.00 (+0.67%)

Today was a wash for the most part. My total profit for today was a mere +0.47%.

Total Profit Since 8/7/07 = 6.85%

Picked up Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC) and Luby's, Inc. (LUB)

2007-08-14T15:34:00.000-05:00

Today towards close I picked up Lubby's (LUB) at $9.95 and Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC) at $2.98.

Sold Versar Inc. (VSR)

2007-08-13T15:38:00.000-05:00

Today I sold Versar for a small profit. Unfortunately, trading is only a hobby for me and not a full time job so I had to place a market order to sell when the markets opened. Even though the stock went a lot higher, as they say, no one ever went broke by taking a profit. I think I'll try trailing stops next time.

I ended up selling Versar at $8.40 for a profit of $0.15 (+1.81%). I came close to pulling the trigger on a couple of things this afternoon but ended up choosing not to.

Total Profit Since 8/7/07 = 6.35%

Versar Inc. (VSR)

2007-08-10T16:42:00.000-05:00

This afternoon I picked up Versar Inc. (VSR) on the recent news of their latest hazardous waste contracts. My purchase price was $8.25.

Sold IMGR

2007-08-10T09:28:00.000-05:00

Sold IMGR @ $1.40 (+5.26%)

Total Profit Since 8/7/07 = 4.46%

Picked up Infinity Medical Gro (IMGR)

2007-08-09T16:15:00.000-05:00

Picked up IMGR @ $1.33

Sold ARTG & RAS

2007-08-09T09:24:00.000-05:00

Sold ARTG @ $3.29 (loss of $0.01) -0.3%
Sold RAS @ $9.00 (loss of $0.23) -2.49%

Total Overnight Loss: 1.4%

Art Technology Group, Inc. (ARTG) & RAIT Financial Trust Common Shares (RAS)...

2007-08-08T15:35:00.000-05:00

Before close, I picked up Art Technology (ARTG) at $3.30 and a RAIT (RAS) at $9.23. I have a feeling going with RAS was a bad move but we'll see how it pans in out in the morning (I'm getting killed in after hours FYI). If so, I picked up ARTG to cover for some of my losses.

Sold NFI @ $6.73

2007-08-07T10:19:00.000-05:00

Cramer said a few bad things about this one yesterday which sent the stock tumbling -- which is too bad considering this stock was reaching towards $7 in after hours. I had my order to fill at market open and ended up getting out at $6.73 for a total profit of about 0.6%.

Novastar Financial Inc. (NFI)

2007-08-06T16:57:00.000-05:00

Today I picked up Novastar Financial Inc. (NFI) on the news that it would resume funding wholesale mortgages on Tuesday. I picked up NFI at a market price of $6.69.

Apple's (AAPL) new iPhone

2007-06-26T19:12:00.000-05:00

Of course the big news around Apple is the soon to be released iPhone. You will hear analysists spout off their comments from here till next quarter but truth be told, no one can predict what the release of the iPhone will do for the price of the stock. I remain skeptical and see the price of the iPhone as being too much for the standard consumer. For one, the iPhone costs more with a new contract than your average picture phone costs without one. Second, in order use all of the features of the iPhone, you are looking at paying in excess of $80/month. I view the iPhone as a product with a lot of hype that the average person won't want to budget.

As far as the stock goes, I'm holding off on any position with the stock at this time. A big black candle occurred following today's close. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than it opened. To me, this is the first sign of a short-term top with profit takers locking in profits. Three black candles occurred in the last three trading days days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish. Also, the momentum has hit a new 14-day low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.

If already holding long positions, we would look to partial profits on any retracement to $116.42. Traders with remaining long positions after profit taking should consider placing exit stops in the region of $115.40. Be prepared for a potential short term price fall back to the $118.38 area.

Suggested standing placement of fail-safe stops...
If Long: exit all positions at $115.40
If Short: exit all positions at $127.61

Halliburton (HAL)

2006-10-29T23:16:00.000-05:00

I haven't done much trading as of late, but I think I might've found a buying opportunity for those of you out there still reading this -- and apparently there are a few. I will let this chart I drew up on Metastock speak for it's self. It is in my belief that Halliburton will be pulling north, and with the current drop in price for after hours, I would try and pick up Halliburton (HAL) at a price around $31.60 (or perhaps lower) on Monday.

If you click on my chart it will become larger and make more sense to you.

Halliburton (HAL) Shakes On Declining Oil Prices

2006-05-15T21:24:00.000-05:00

According to Fibonacci, the next level of support during Halliburton’s (HAL) downward trend lies somewhere around the $74 which, coincidentally, is where it marked its low point today.

An interesting thing to not about this chart is outlined in the circle of an event that occurred sometime between mid-late January 2006. An island occurred which usually signifies a turn in the stock price. For the most part, it will give you an upward trend; however, this upward trend quickly turned south. Now if you fast forward to day, you see a similar event start to develop – perhaps this time we will see the reversal of that outcome.

One thing to note today is that the price of oil dropped quite a bit on the United States’ considering Libya as trading partners again now that Libya is recognizing terrorists as terrorists. So perhaps Halliburton’s drop in price is just because of recent events and I don’t expect anything big to come out of it – specifically because of the services Halliburton provides and how it differs from other oil companies (Exxon Mobile [XOM] comes to mind).

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)

2006-04-06T17:56:00.000-05:00

Before getting into this, FYI, I am currently an owner of Halliburton (HAL) which is the chart above – you can make larger by clicking on it. I made two positions in Halliburton's stock which averaged out to an price of $67.545/share.

I honestly can’t think of a better spot to start talking about technical analysis than MACD, which is quite possibly the most accurate of all technical indicators. If I could only have one indicator in my bag of tricks, it would probably be either MACD or RSI (which we will get into at a later date). Above is a recent chart for Halliburton (HAL) and as you can see, the indicators can give you a pretty good idea of where a stock feels like moving. We will discuss the chart in more detail as you read on.

In the chart above, you will see MACD buy signals and MACD sell signals pointed out by both green and red arrows. To show you how those signals were generated, I also plotted solid and dashed red lines. As you notice, where the two lines cross over, a new signal is given. The solid line represents the 12-day exponential moving average while the dashed line represents a 26-day exponential moving average. When the 12-day exponential moving average crosses the 26-day exponential moving average, a buy signal is triggered and vice versa for a sell signal. The strength of the signal can be seen by the steepness of the two intersecting lines. I always suggest using MACD and learning how to trade with and not against it.

There is no room for rebels in the stock market. The trend is your friend – don’t bet against it.

More Strategy / Less Small Talk

2006-04-04T17:52:00.000-05:00

As I go on further with Swing Trade It, I will begin to focus more on strategy instead of what to buy and what to sell. If I told you to buy this stock or buy that stock, you would make money over time; however, you would learn nothing from it. My goal here is to educate people to be their own self-made millionaires and feel self-fulfillment.

According to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, there are five levels of needs. The first four levels are deficiency needs while the top level containing our growth needs. In basic terms, while our deficiency needs need to be met for survival, we also need to continue to grow to be self-fulfilled as individuals. If I told you stocks to buy and sell you would be able to achieve your first four levels of needs; nonetheless, I want you to feel like you’ve done something you can be proud of. In order to feel self-fulfilled, you need to accomplish something -- it is for this reason that I have shifted my strategy.

Certainly we will talk about specific stocks with trends and things such as that; however, when I started Swing Trade It, I started off saying what I bought and sold. Now, it will be explaining why I purchased a stock as well as my exit strategy instead of the one liner saying that I picked it up. I’m certain that with a lot of my regular viewers, I have established a certain level of credibility for being able to buy a company and then maybe a noticeable profit over the course of just a few days. Thanks for reading and I hope you continue doing so.

On that note, sometime over the next couple of days I plan on having something posted about the most basic of technical analysis. I can’t think of a more appropriate place to begin than to talk about moving average convergence/divergence -- more commonly known as MACD.

Earnings & Events For The Week Of April 3, 2006

2006-04-02T20:14:00.000-05:00

Monday:
Earnings:
Events: ISM Manufacturing Index [Consensus 57.5; STI Predicts 58.0]

Tuesday:
Earnings:
Events:

Wednesday:
Earnings: Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY), Monsanto Company (MON)
Events:

Thursday:
Earnings: Constellation Brands (STZ)
Events:

Friday:
Earnings:
Events: Nonfarm Payrolls [Consensus185,000; STI Predicts 190,000], Unemployment Rate [Consensus 4.8%; STI Predicts 4.7%]

Basic Rules for Trading the Stock Market

2006-03-26T12:36:00.000-05:00

Some of these were given by friends; some of them were made up me. Nonetheless, I follow this to the “T”. If you have anything you'd like to add to the list, feel free. Having something such as this during good times seems frivolous; but when you’re in a bad streak, it’s nice to know you have something you can fall back on which you know has worked in the past.

My Stock Market Rules

Rule #1 Never chase a stock -- buy dips instead because it limits the risk.

Rule #2 BE PATIENT!! If you buy a stock that dipped, it will come back.

Rule #3 Never buy a stock for more then you just sold it for. If you sold for a nice profit, don't chase it. Wait for it to dip again before you buy it back. Unless you’re trading a stock that’s all over the map, don't break this rule.

Rule #4 Don't buy stocks and hold them on margin. Use margin during the day while you are trading, but try to avoid it, it can set you up for disaster (terrorist attacks overnight).

Rule #5 If you buy a stock on a dip and then it tanks big-time even further… when it comes back to near or around what you paid for it… dump it and re-evaluate the situation.

Rule #6 When trading, only trade stocks that have volume. Don't mess with anything else… you will end up dumping it as soon as you see something else running.

Rule #7 Hold stocks over the weekend. Whoever came up with that stupid rule that says you should never hold a stock over the weekend probably isn't trading anymore. There is a lot of money to be made buying momentum stocks at around 3:55 on a Friday afternoon -- they usually gap up first thing Monday morning for a nice gain.

Miscellaneous Knowledge:

#1 The trend is your friend.
#2 You can never go broke by taking a profit.
#3 Cut your losses, let your winners run.
#4 If it’s supposed to go up and doesn’t, it’s going down.
#5 The market is never wrong.
#6 Buy low, sell high.
#7 Those who forget history, are doomed to repeat it.
#8 Buy on rumor, sell on news.
#9 It’s better to lose opportunity, than money.

Earnings & Events For The Week Of March 27, 2006

2006-03-26T11:58:00.000-05:00

Monday:
Earnings: Walgreen (WAG)
Events:

Tuesday:
Earnings: Lennar Corporation (LEN), Paychex (PAYX), Red Hat (RHAT)
Events: Federal Funds Rate Target Level [Consensus 4.750%]

Wednesday:
Earnings:
Events:

Thursday:
Earnings: Best Buy (BBY)
Events: Real GDP [Consensus 1.7%; Our Prediction 1.6%]

Friday:
Earnings:
Events: Personal Income [Consensus 0.4%; Our Prediction 0.5%]

New Look

2006-03-26T01:39:00.000-05:00

Yes, and it's about time too! After working behind the scenes for a while I've finally come up with something I can feel proud of. I admit, the old one was a bit of a hack just thrown together with an odd arrangement of colors, margins and an off-center logo to put the icing on the cake. I’ll continue working with it here and there to make minor adjustments in my spare time. I hope you like it and don’t forget to tell your friends and bookmark us!

Don't Be Fooled By Sirius (SIRI) Short-Term Gain

2006-03-20T18:33:00.000-05:00

Sirius has turned into a momentum stock pushing higher now finding ground around the $5 level. I strongly feel that Sirius should be lower -- much lower. I have been a pessimist on Sirius ever since I found out how enormously over-paid Howard Stern was. It should be evident that Howard Stern feels the same when he pulled off the largest pump and dump in United States history yet will never serve a day in jail.

Short-term I think the stock might go higher as Howard Stern is now getting publicity once more after everyone finally forgot about him. After the lawsuit is settled and the dust has cleared, Sirius will once again find a home well below $5.

Earnings & Events For The Week Of March 20, 2006

2006-03-19T17:38:00.000-05:00

Monday:
Earnings: Oracle (ORCL)
Events:

Tuesday:
Earnings: Biomet Inc (BMET), Dollar General Corp (DG), Nike (NKE)

Events: Producer Price Index [Consensus -0.2%; Our Prediction -0.3%] Producer Price Index less food & energy [Consensus 0.2%; Our Prediction 0.1%]

Wednesday:
Earnings: Adobe Systems (ADBE), Darden Restaurants (DRI), FedEx (FDX), Morgan Stanley (MS)
Events:

Thursday:
Earnings: 3Com Corp (COMS), General Mills Inc (GIS), Solectron (SLR)
Events:

Friday:
Earnings:
Events: Durable Goods Orders (New Orders) [Consensus -1.2%; Our Prediction 2.0%]

Sold Off Ivanhoe (IVAN)

2006-03-17T09:29:00.000-05:00

After Ivanhoe (IVAN) failed to gap up (showing a lack of demand in the stock) I decided to sell it off at opening bell for a total profit of 9 cents or 3.4%.

Stocks Head Higher -- I'm Selling Off Dead Weight

2006-03-15T23:04:00.000-05:00

Today I sold off some dead weight which I see going no where short term. Coming off today's highs, I couldn't find a better time to do it.

Apple Computer (AAPL) which I filled purchased two positions on for at an average price of $66.86 and sold it at $67.70 after it started falling over because of the 3 day rule. I made a profit of $0.84/share or 1.26%.

I also sold off Prudential (PRU) at $77 for a profit of $1.52/share or 2%.

I am currently holding onto Wellpoint (WLP), Halliburton (HAL) and Metlife (MET). This week has been a busy week for me but I am currently looking to make some better positions on Friday going into Monday the 20th.

Picking Up Ivanhoe Energy (IVAN) Ahead of Earnings

2006-03-15T15:42:00.000-05:00

I’m basing this on speculation but I think it’s going to be good. I don’t advise anyone else to do this as it is merely a gamble -- I think the odds are in my favor however.

I picked up Ivanhoe Energy (IVAN) at $2.66/share. No guts no glory.

Earnings & Events For The Week Of March 13, 2006

2006-03-12T14:04:00.000-05:00

Monday:
Earnings:
Events:

Tuesday:
Earnings: Goldman Sachs (GS)
Events: Retail Sales [Consensus -0.9%; Our Prediction -0.7%]; Retail Sales less autos [Consensus -0.5%; Our Prediction -0.1%]

Wednesday:
Earnings: Comverse Technology (CMVT), Ivanhoe Energy (IVAN), Lehman Brothers Holdings (LEH)
Events:

Thursday:
Earnings: Bear Stearns (BSC), Cintas Corporation (CTAS), Tektronix Inc (TEK)
Events: Consumer Price Index [Consensus 0.1%; Our Prediction 0.2%]; Consumer Price Index less food & energy [Consensus 0.2%; Our Prediction 0.3%]; Housing Starts [Consensus 2.0 M; Our Prediction 2.04 M]

Friday:
Earnings:
Events: Industrial Production [Consensus 0.9%; Our Prediction 0.7%]

Google (GOOG) In Trouble

2006-03-10T22:10:00.000-05:00

Q: What do you think about Google?

A: Google (GOOG) is currently trading 2.3% below its 200 DMA and is in a downward trend. My trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on Google and have had this outlook for the last month or so.

The good news is that Google appears to be oversold short term as it is coming up to its resistance point at $330. The bad news is that once it loses that, it’s going to find support once again around the $285 mark. Friday afternoon is typically a good day to pick up some bargains so it’ll be interesting to see what investors plan on doing come Monday. I really wouldn't be surprised either way.

Bottom Line:
Short Term: Oversold
Mid Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Picked Up 2nd Half of Halliburton (HAL); Some Wellpoint (WLP), Metlife (MET)

2006-03-07T22:51:00.000-05:00

Purchases for today included picking up the second half of Halliburton (HAL) at $65.90. It's a good price now IMO. My first purchase of Halliburton was at $69.19. This averages out my position to a purchase price of $67.545.

I also entered into new positions noted this weekend being Wellpoint (WLP) at $75.01 and Metlife (MET) at $49.00.

My shares of Englobal Corp (ENG) were sold at $11.15 for a profit of 1.2%.

Rising Bond Yield Triggers Afternoon Sell-Off

2006-03-06T23:07:00.000-05:00

I’m not sure how the rest of you did today, but for me, my sole watch for today that went up was Ronson (RONC) which went up 28.26% after having a very good day on the upside on Friday. Tomorrow, the 3-day rule goes into effect so I expect the stock to go down.

FYI: When a stock goes up and has two days of consistent upside, on the third day, volume typically thins and value of the stock goes down. It’s not totally accurate, but it is the three day rule and I follow it routinely.

Shares of Apple Computer (AAPL) lost 3.31% of its value today triggering me to buy the other half of my position in the company.

In this bearish day, I tend to look for stocks that have an upward trend that aren’t about to fall into the 3-day rule. Today, I picked up Englobal Corp (ENG) at $11.02. Englobal closed at $11.21 for a gain of 7.17%. This will be one that needs to be watched closely as we may see some sell-off but I did see a MACD trigger today leading me to believe the stock might be heading for an upward trend. I will be watching it closely over the next few days but setting a stop loss of $11.15 because of today's significant gain.

Looking Ahead At A Mixed Week

2006-03-05T17:37:00.000-05:00

Monday:
Earnings: (None Worth Noting)

Tuesday:
Earnings: Albertsons's (ABS), Edison International (EIX), Kronger (KR)

Wednesday:
Earnings: Dynegy Inc. (DYN)

Thursday:
Earnings: National Semiconductor (NSM)
Events: International Trade [Consensus -$66.5 B]

Friday:
Earnings: (None Worth Noting)
Events: Nonfarm Payrolls [Consensus 220,000]; Unemployment Rate [Consensus 4.7%]

Bottom Line: Next week I will be paying close attention to Metlife (MET) and Wellpoint (WLP) as they both have been trading relatively low. Currently, the two stocks are trading at 34 and 28 RSI respectively. The Dow is trading above both the 50 DMA and 200 DMA leading me to believe the markets will trade higher into the middle of next week. Ronsons (RONC) also had a very good day on Friday. We could see some shaking later on in the week (Wednesday afternoon into Thursday) but come Friday afternoon I’ll be looking for discounts going into the week of March 13^th.

Dow Inches Lower On Slightly Higher Fuel Cost

2006-03-04T18:32:00.000-05:00

My portfolio dipped a bit on Friday making this one of the few days where I did not hold a stock which went up. The losses weren’t anything outside of lower single digits, bit it certainly comes as a surprise. Nonetheless, my portfolio edged slightly higher this week as we are still on our way to over a 100% gain by 2007.

In business, whether it is trading or otherwise, operating results are everything. Effort is a good thing to have, and it can lead to results, but in the end it’s only those results that mean anything. Throughout my learning experience, I went through a lot of downs, then some ups, then some downs and finally mostly ups. I’m far from perfect and still have a lot to learn and yet am still able to compete with profitable traders.

Even though day trading involves spending hours upon hours a day sitting in front of the computer, I think it is far easier than swing trading. At the end of the day, day traders are out of all of their stocks and every day starts fresh. On the other hand now that I swing trade, I don’t have all day to buy and sell securities (or feel like spending $175-$250/day in commission). A lot of my day is spent reading not only charts but news, annalist’s reviews and looking for any market moving events – especially sector related ones. I listed a lot of the websites I read on the right side of this page. It’s an interesting switch for me and I like it considering that I found the idea of watching charts tick up and down all day just a little boring.

Nonetheless, I’ve got a new mathematical strategy which is going to take some time to implement but I am very excited about what its overall impact could return for me as far as profits goes. This should be able to give me larger returns with less work and more accuracy – still have a lot more research and back testing to do before implementation though.

Sold United States Steel (X) & Picked Up Prudential (PRU)

2006-03-02T18:56:00.000-05:00

I sold off my shares of United States Steel (X) today at $57.62 that I purchased back on Tuesday for a profit of $3.33/share (6.13%).

My sole purchase today included some Prudential (PRU) at $75.48.

My current market positions which I hold at the moment which I talk about here are Apple (AAPL) from $68.78. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) from $58.16 and Halliburton (HAL) from $69.19.

Good Day For Dow: Almost All Sectors Close Green

2006-03-01T16:17:00.000-05:00

Stocks today had a quick bounce, recovering from some of the losses incurred from yesterday’s stumble. The semiconductor sector did the best seeing gains of over 4%. Gold, energy, oil services and transportation also did fairly well with modest gains around 2%. Overall, I would say that this has been a good day for the market.We saw a quick rebound with nearly all sectors ending the day in green.

Today I picked up some Halliburton (HAL) at $69.19. Halliburton gapped lower for the second consecutive day but started to pick up steam this afternoon. A low price combined with short coverings might cause the stock to go even higher tomorrow.

Buying Apple Computer (AAPL), United States Steel (X) and United Health Group (UNH)

2006-02-28T15:51:00.000-05:00

After Apple failed to make $72 it's new lower support today more than two fairly distinct points, I finally sold it at $72.

Today, I repurchased my shares of Apple Computer (AAPL) at $68.78. I also picked up some United States Steel (X) at $54.29 and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) at $58.16. Also bailed on Sirius (SIRI) losing 9 cents a share -- never having blind faith in Cramer again -- lesson learned. I will write more about this later (weekend maybe).

Oil Corrects It’s Self… Dips Nearly $2

2006-02-27T20:46:00.000-05:00

Last Friday I was a little surprised to see oil jump so high despite attempted terrorist attacks. Today, markets realized that fear was overplayed and oil receded to levels close to where they should’ve ending on Friday. Because of this, the Dow climbed and the S&P 500 saw a 4 ½ year high.

This move is kinda risky but I think Apple (AAPL) has hit a short term low point and picked up some shares mid-day at $70.98. Anything below $68 and I am willing to place and even larger position in the stock. I’d wait until it goes lower but I feel as if the market is a little too bullish to bring Apple back down to around $63 as we saw two weeks ago. I am looking fo a sale of around $72 - $73 before pulling back. Watch it closely as it still does have a mid-term bearish outlook.

We'll see where the market feels like going tomorrow and perhaps it will reveal some even better buying opportunities.

Looking Ahead to a Mostly Bearish Week

2006-02-26T14:28:00.000-05:00

Monday:
Earnings: Lowe’s Company (LOW), Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM)

Tuesday:
Earnings: Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK), CenterPoint Energy (CNP), H.J. Heinz Company (HNZ), Hospira (HSP), King Pharmaceuticals (KG), Staples, Inc. (SPLS), Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), Williams Companies Inc. (WMB)
Events: Real GDP, Q/Q change, SAAR [Consensus 1.6%] / GDP deflator, Q/Q change, SAAR [Consensus 3.0%]

Wednesday:
Earnings: ADC (ADCT), AutoZone Inc. (AZO), Brown-Forman Corporation (BFB), Cooper Tire & Rubber (CTB), El Paso Corp. (EP), Medco Health Solutions (MHS), Vivendi Universal (V)
Events: Personal Income, M/M change [Consensus 0.6%] / Consumer Spending, M/M change [Consensus 1.0%]. ISM Manufacturing Index [Consensus 56.0]

Thursday:
Earnings: Ciena Corporation (CIEN), Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), Novell, Inc. (NOVL), Tenet Healthcare (THC), The Progressive Corporation (PGR), Univision Communications (UVN)

Friday:
Earnings: (None Worth Noting)

Commentary: I must admit, I was a little surprised to see oil jump over $2/barrel on Friday of last week. I would’ve thought that by now terrorist attacks on oil fields would’ve been expected because of recent circumstances and would already be figured into the price of the commodity. If every terrorist attempt to attack the supply of oil raises the price of crude a significant amount from here on out, perhaps we should look at a longer term position on it.

At the beginning of next week, I will be paying particular attention to the oil sector, mainly on Weatherford International (WFT), Halliburton (HAL), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A).

I will also be looking at H5N1, the Avian Flu, with all the news that has been going on recently about it. My stock list for Avian Flu include: Chiron (CHIR), Novartis (NVS), Sanofi-Avntis (SNY), Medlmmune (MEDI), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Novavax (NVAX).

Sirius Trouble

2006-02-21T19:22:00.000-05:00

Today I took a chance on Sirius (SIRI) buying a few shares around closing time at $5.20. I have a feeling that I might have pulled off a Stoneking here but nonetheless, after I was considering picking up Ivanhoe Energy (IVAN) last Friday only to see it go up well over 10% today at one point, I couldn’t help but to pull the trigger on this one. With my portfolio gains being larger than expected so far this year, I think I certainly have earned a risky play.

Sirius (SIRI) is currently 19.5% below its 200 DMA and is still in a downward trend. Volatility has been extremely high over the last 10-14 trading days and there is a good possibility that some long-term holders have been selling off on fear. I know Jim Cramer is bullish on Sirius but I have been known to disagree with him from time to time and this is one of those times. I have been bearish on Sirius for as long as I can remember and let it be known that long-term, I am still bearish.

My purchase comes because I think that Sirius has been oversold for its current frame in time brings it below the lower Bollinger band at two standard deviations. Combine this with Jim Cramer being bullish on the stock and I think we might see a quick bounce if he mentions it on Mad Money tonight. Just to be certain, I have set a stop loss on the stock at 5 cents to cover any losses I may incur. The stop loss may be canceled tonight pending on if Jim Cramer says anything.

My Entire Stock Trading Strategy In A Nutshell

2006-02-21T18:20:00.000-05:00

If it were only that easy.

If Swing Trade It ever gets really popular, I might add a website specifically for writing articles based on and explaining my strategy. For the time being, in my spare time (probably Sunday afternoons or every other Sunday), I am planning on writing a little something to do with my strategy. I am not designing this blog to be for newbies but I don't mind getting them up to speed in my spare time. If you don’t know the basics of Bollinger Bands, Relative Strength Index, Fibonacci Retracement or even MACD – it should give you a jump start in what the principles are behind my theory of technical analysis. So if you’re new to swing trading, day trading or even intermediate outlooks on US financial markets, you might want to check back for weekend posts.

I won’t lie to you and say that this is an easy way to get wealth because it isn’t. You will most likely lose money before you gain money so this isn’t for people who will have a heart attack over losing 1%. In fact, the best way to learn the art of swing trading / day trading is by having large position moving against you so you can learn how to react to them with your brain instead of getting deer in headlights syndrome. Even if you pull off a Stoneking or two (everyone does once in a while), you can certainly learn from it and use that to your advantage in future trades.

Nonetheless, if you’re one of the elite traders in the world, meaning the top 5%, you might be able to make a lot of money in this game (100%+ annual returns). I’m not sure what the statistics are on swing traders; however, 95% of day traders go broke within their first two years and I’m am sure the stats on swing traders are quite similar. I have done some day trading in the past and have taken that experience and combined it with daily economical and security news to create similar results without needing to be behind the computer studying the charts between the hours of 7:30AM and 8:00PM.

A Look Ahead at Next Week

2006-02-18T20:17:00.000-05:00

Monday:
Markets Closed Observing Washington's Birthday

Tuesday:
Earnings: Clear Channel Communications (CCU), Home Depot (HD), Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)

Wednesday:
Earnings: OfficeMax (OMX), Sprint Nextel Corporation (S)
Events: Consumer Price Index [Consensus: 0.5%] / Consumer Price Index Less Food & Energy [Consensus: 0.2%]

Thursday:
Earnings: CBS (CBS), Gap Inc. (GPS), H&R Block (HRB), Kohl’s (KSS), Nordstrom (JWN), Toll Brothers (TOL)
Events: Jobless Claims [Consensus: 300k]

Friday:
Earnings: KeySpan (KSE)
Events: Durable Goods Orders [Consensus: -1.2%]

Sold Off Apple Computer Inc (AAPL)

2006-02-16T21:30:00.000-05:00

Today I sold off my shares of Apple Computer Inc (AAPL) at $70.56. After today, the stock has gapped up for the 3^rd consecutive day; I decided that it was time for Apple to face a pullback.

Unfortunately, Apple Computer didn’t pull back $60 where I was set to buy the other half of my position so I only have my originally placed position on Apple Computer at $67.20. Because of this, profits were small compared to where they could’ve been at a mere $3.36/share profit or 5%.

I still am refining my technique in hopes of getting comparative profits to that of when I was day trading. If am going to do that, I think I’ll need to end up buying options at some point. Hopefully I’ll find some better stocks soon with more short-term volatility.

On another note, Reuters this evening is reporting the first virus ever specifically targeted for the OS X operating system. I just threw in that little tid bit for those of you out there who are pony tale, sandal wearing hippie Mac fanatics who thought your operating system was impenetrable. Before I give the link to the article, I must warn you that Reuters made a mistake in calling a Mac a PC – people should really stop confusing a solid desktop computer with a box that carries a million screws and about an equal number of hardware problems. You can read the article by Reuters here.

I have had far more success with Dell's hardware and Microsoft's operating system than I have with Apple and OS X. I don't foresee Apple cutting into the computing market share anytime in the near future – and if they do for a short time as they move over to Intel architecture – it will be a public relations nightmare.

Dow Stays Above 11,000 On Lower Fuel Prices

2006-02-15T17:10:00.000-05:00

Despite hints by Bernanke of possibly raising interest rates, for the second straight day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished over 11,000 to close at 11,058.97. The Dow did dip a little after Bernanke spoke; however, the quick rebound leads me to believe that raising interest rates was already figured into the markets from the last Fed meeting. Nonetheless, unless something dramatic happens I believe it’s safe to say that the interest rates will be increasing a quarter of a percentage point at the next fed meeting.

Shares of Hewlett Packard lost 82 cents (2.52%) today as I am sure many investors have been seeing weakness in the sector as of late as I have. Going into the conference call, shares raised $1.23 (3.88%) to 32.90 on news of profits rising 30%. I will never doubt Mark Hurd again. I am listening in on the conference call so I will need to continue with this tomorrow.

One of the stocks that haven’t hit my trailing stop loss yet, Lamson Sessions (LMS), went up $2.12 today (7.08%) to $32.05. Due to a scheduling conflict, I will not be able to watch this stock tomorrow and might not be able to make a sale before the conference call. Because of this, I have chosen not to hold onto my position of LMS going into the conference call tomorrow at 2 P.M and sold my shares late this afternoon. No one ever went broke by taking a profit.

I have been holding Lamson Sessions (LMS) since February 7^th when I purchased the stock at $28.71 and sold it at $32.03 giving me a total profit of $3.32/share or 11.56%.

The shares I purchased of Newmont Mining (NEM) and Halliburton (HAL) which both hit the trailing stop loss of 1% several days ago will likely be repurchased if the price in oil shows any signs of resistance in the near future.

NYSE and NASDAQ Soar As Retail Sales Exceed Expectation, Oil Drop

2006-02-14T16:44:00.000-05:00

Back on Friday I said that I thought a strong report of retail sales could help the markets early on this week. I expected retail sales to exceed expectations; however, not by this much. The impressive results combined with oil closing at $61.03/barrel sent the Dow over the 11,000 mark for the first time since mid-January.

Tomorrow Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) will be reporting earrings and as much as I approve of Mark Hurd, I don’t think the numbers will be stellar unfortunately. An Energy Department report tomorrow will most likely show oil supplies rising -- possibly letting the price of crude close as low as $60/barrel and even below $60 within the next two weeks as this winter has been mild and is almost over.

I expect stocks to slide below the 11,000 mark tomorrow on profit taking. With Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) reporting earnings tomorrow and Dell (DELL) reporting the day after -- I don't think that the Dow is ready to find a home at 11,000 quite yet.

6 Days Later: Marvell Technology Group Takes A Dip

2006-02-13T19:36:00.000-05:00

Back on February 5^th I noted that Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) had been trading in equilibrium and thought it would go lower. Today, the stock finally took a turn south losing 5.69%. The stock appears to now have resistance around the $63.50 level and perhaps it’s time to start looking for another re-entry point on the stock now that we can get it at a decent price.

Another thing to note is that XM Satellite Radio is now trading RSI > 30 on the 15 minute chart. You can do whatever but I would like to see XM trace back to around $22 before getting bullish.

Google to Drop Another 50%?

2006-02-12T16:44:00.000-05:00

After Google faced its stumble, or plummet rather on its latest earnings, Barron’s is now saying the stock could dip another 50% according to this Reuter’s article published about 3 hours ago. Barron’s is basing this 50% drop based on competition (I speculate from Yahoo and Microsoft’s pay per click advertising) and fraud by some of the AdSense users.

This is the kind of news I was expecting to come out; however, I wasn’t expecting it for quite some time. I don’t find a 50% drop outside the realm of possibility, but it certainly won’t get there overnight. For the time being, if I play Google, I will be playing by the moves (as usual) and not holding as a longer term investment. Allegations of click fraud are certainly enough to make investors as well as advertisers worried about the integrity of the AdSense program and will almost certainly work against the price of the stock.

On top of all this, Google's CEO says, "The company isn't run for the long-term value of our shareholders but for the long-term value of our end users." How absurd. This stock is sure to take a beating on Monday.

Thank You All

2006-02-12T15:32:00.000-05:00

I was shoveling outside this Sunday afternoon in blizzard conditions thinking about what to write about. I took a picture of my car before clearing it off just for all of you to get an idea of how much snow we’re actually getting – and it’s not even the end of it – it will continue snowing here on through the evening as we were once expecting only 4-8” but now are hearing we could get 10-20”. The markets are closed – but I’m really in a writing mood.

Instead of dealing with financials today I would just like to write a note to say thanks to all of you. In a little more than a week, Swing Trade It will be one month old. We don’t even have a Google Page Rank as of today and yet, we are on a pace to hit 850 unique viewers a week with countless numbers returning after the first visit. This is not something which could have happened without the grassroots effort of all of you sharing the news about this blog.

When I first started Swing Trade It, I was intending to focus on the little guy – the guy who thinks that if you want to make money in the markets, you need to have connections. Not everyone that is making money is an insider trader and I have the firm belief that even normal folks like you and me have an ability to make a substantial amount of wealth in the markets if we’re willing to work hard and take some pain.

I started Swing Trade It planning on showing you some of what I have learned throughout the years and perhaps you could learn something from my techniques. Now, it appears as if people from all backgrounds are reading Swing Trade It. I’ve heard from everyone from the John Doe who lost a fortune in the market during the bubble burst to the hedge fund manager who is managing multi-million dollar portfolios. I take great pride in my work and I hope that everyone who reads this – even if they only visit once – will be able to take something from it and help you achieve financial stability.

I know that a lot of people are weary of the markets since the bubble burst but I hope that after you read this and conduct your own thorough due diligence you will realize that bailing ship on the United States economy by no longer investing in it was a poor decision. That which doesn’t kill you will only make you stronger.

Can the Dow Test 11,000? Not quite yet.

2006-02-10T23:17:00.000-05:00

Surging more than 35 points today the Dow closed at 10,919 – only 81 points from where it has faced stiff resistance.

This week ended on a good note with the US government reporting an impressive budget surplus of $21 billion and the price of crude slipping another 78 cents to 61.84 a barrel. While the US trade deficit did widen last year, I expect the deficit to only improve as commodity prices continue to drop.

On Tuesday of next week we will hear reports of retails sales which could set the tone of what kind of a week we will have. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) it set to report earnings on Wednesday and Dell (DELL) on Thursday which will be key if there is to be a late-week rally.

I believe Mark Hurd is doing a fine job as CEO of HP. No offence to Carleton Fiorina, but she just didn’t have what it took to get the job done. Even though Mark has restored my confidence in HP, the hardware side of the market has been stung as of late. All this being said, expect to hear better things from HP next week than you will from Dell.

The Google Effect: How a Stock With Good Earnings Can Turn Bearish

2006-02-09T20:44:00.000-05:00

I’m sure you’ve read a lot of Google (chart above) articles by now about poor earings. In fact, because of that news, last Friday I called the next level of resistance being at 360 – a 72 point drop. Today Google’s stock closed at 358 and rose to 360 in after hours. I really didn’t see much wrong with the earnings, in fact, they were quite good. The problem was with what people had expected of Google.

Google lead the way with AdSense being on the forefront of cost-per-click advertising. Yes click-fraud has been around for quite a while which is just starting to come to light – but lets take that out of the equation for a while since there still are companies willing to pay a considerable amount per click. The fact of the matter is that as we look into the future, we’re looking at Yahoo and MSN implementing similar strategies and can expect Google’s near 100% market share to go down.

The above point was rather elementary and was not what I was getting at. What I’m trying to show is how Google, not being able to meet expectations, will now have their expectations lowered because of competition and lack of a new groundbreaking innovation such as AdSense. This day in age, expectations are made to be beaten. If you cannot meet or exceed your expectations, they will be lowered until you can meet or exceed them. I am not quite ready to call it quits on Google yet.

Thanks Cramer: Vitesse Semiconductor Rises 15% in After Hours

2006-02-08T22:22:00.000-05:00

If you just started reading this blog and picked up VTSS yesterday – don’t count on this happening anytime again in the near future. I was hoping buyers would pick up brining the stock back up to the lower 2.90 range but Cramer caused breakout this evening on Mad Money recommending the stock which now rests at 3.31. I will be looking to sell sometime in the near future for profit taking reasons and look for a better entry point.

If you’re looking for a real reason to buy Vitesse, you should listen to Jim Cramer. My reasoning behind it was because Vitesse announced they were expecting lower losses on Monday. On Monday the stock had a nice bounce which quickly depleted on Tuesday’s sell off – and picked it up as one of my buying opportunities.

Vitesse definitely should’ve gone higher, but I doubt it warrants a 15% rise in after hours. Because of this, I think I plan on selling in hopes of getting a better price.

Wall Street Slips Shaving 48.51 Points off DJIA, 13.84 off NASDAQ

2006-02-07T22:47:00.000-05:00

The sell off today included oil, dropping over $2 to nearly $63/barrel. I took this as a good buying opportunity for Halliburton (HAL) at $73 and Newmont Mining (NEM) at $56.30.

Aside from playing off the energy drop, I picked up Lamson & Sessions (LMS) at $28.71. As I said I would most likely do yesterday, I also decided buy some Apple Computer (AAPL) at $67.20 and Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS) at an average of $2.77 which took a bit of a drop today off of a solid gain yesterday. We’ll see if we have any winners come tomorrow.

I also took note of Urban Outfitter’s gain of almost 4% and Birch Mountain Resources 4.8% gain but took no action upon it.

Sirius Satellite Radio had an impressive gain of .27 (4.92%) and then another .06 (1.04%) in after hours brining the stock up to $5.82. I know a few people whom purchased Sirius as a longer term play because they think Howard Stern will make it big – I think they couldn’t be more wrong and will take some time to explain my reasoning towards at a later date.

Picking Out a Bottom on Apple

2006-02-06T20:06:00.000-05:00

I think right about now would be a good time to start buying back the Apple Computer (chart above) shares sold at an earlier date. Barring any abrupt shift before market open tomorrow, I will likely place half if my previous Apple position back into the stock – leaving the other half for if the stock reaches the low 60 to high 50 range.

Marvell Technology Group went up 1.60 today to 68.01 and gained another .19 in after hours bringing the stock up to 68.20. Short term, I am still am holding off on buying the stock until I see signs of it going towards 70.

Marvell Technology Group Could Go Lower

2006-02-05T18:50:00.000-05:00

From January 30^th to February 3^rd Marvell Technology Group has been trading in a state of equilibrium. On last Friday, we saw Marvell pinch below that level and it appears to be heading in a downward trend.

I know Jim Cramer has mentioned this stock at least a couple of times and if he does it again, you may see it go back up – but I believe a more likely scenario is that it pulls back to around 66 or possibly even 65 before people start buying it and we see another upward trend. We'll need to wait for Monday to see what the stock really wants to do.

The Fundamental Flaw of Technical Analysis

2006-02-05T17:00:00.000-05:00

I am writing this because there are people out there who think the DJIA is most certainly headed for 6000 points because of either Fibonacci and/or Elliott Wave.

While I am a believer in technical analysis, technical indicators cannot predict economic outcomes – and that’s the only data you’ll be getting when you draw charts dating back to the early 1900s. Take any company, you can have a relatively good idea in what range it will trade up until next quarter’s earnings – when that day comes – all those technical indicators get thrown out the window. From there the stock may go up or may go down but you can’t use technical analysis to predict that – you need economic data.

Drawing Fibonacci fan all way back to the early 1900s is not a good technical indicator. There is a lot that can go on such as innovation which can raise stocks higher or terrorist attacks to bring them lower. Fibonacci fan does not take technological innovation nor natural disaster or terrorist attack into play. If you look a thousand or even a million years into the future – you will see spreads of an ungodly amount of points just amplifying the irrelevance of Fibonacci long term.

The majority of people predicting DJIA 6000 have a very biased opinion – they aren’t even seeing that the Dow is only 900 points from a new all-time high. They cheer stocks when the go down and hiss when they go up. They short out on everything thinking its only corruption that brings stocks higher which just amplifies their hatred America – or at least the corporate side of it.

The bottom line is that if you’re looking over a number of years you need to use economic data – not technical analysis.

Fed, Hourly Wage Send Stocks Lower

2006-02-03T20:45:00.000-05:00

Today it was announced that the unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in January marking a 5 year low and the average hourly wage rose 7 cents to $16.41. The average hourly wage rose more than expected which could raise interest rates to keep inflation in check – which I believe is what brought down the markets for the week.

I currently see Dow support being around the 10,725 point mark (closed at 10,793.62). I think right now the markets are strong; however, concerns over the Fed raising interest rates might make it recede back to those levels. Considering the strength of the overall economy, I doubt the Dow will be able to test the resistance level and you’d see a quick bounce from bottom fishers looking to make a solid trade.

As stated before Google’s earnings came out – I am a little concerned with the stock. If Google can’t stay within the 390-400 range – let’s just say it’s a long road down to 360.

Stock Market Wrapup

2006-02-02T23:34:00.000-05:00

Grey Wolf yesterday did run from the get go and pulled back to around 8.30 which I saw yesterday as being as it’s next level of support. Unfortunately due to a scheduling conflict, I was not able to be around to purchase the stock.

Stocks today traded lower amidst profit taking as the Dow approached the 11,000 mark. Make no mistake that the 11,000 point level is a huge achievement but is also a psychological barrier. Oil dropped 1.88 to 64.68 a barrel.

Grey Wolf (GW)

2006-02-01T19:45:00.000-05:00

If Grey Wolf can hold off current resistance and bump it's support a little, we might see a pop in this stock. One of the things we need to keep in mind is that the Dow is currently less than 50 points from 11,000 which it has seen a couple of times and faced stiff resistance. I think some of the stocks which are currently greater than 70 RSI will see some pullback tomorrow because of profit taking.

If the stock opens and then runs, I will most likely wait for the first pullback. I do not plan on holding this long term – if it falls through current resistance levels I will be cutting my losses until the next level of support I see being around 8.30. I am targeting for a 3-5% gain.

Google's Stock Slips in AH Almost 12% After Poor Earnings

2006-01-31T20:59:00.000-05:00

You’ve already heard about Google’s earnings so I won’t go there; however, I will say that I believe it was way over-sold and should be trading closer to 400 than 350. The stock will probably gap low and then rise throughout the day on short coverings and realization of Google's position and marketshare. The real question is what it will do to the markets tomorrow morning.

The fortunate thing about Google’s poor earnings is the timing of it. We’ve had this report amongst several other reports of positive earnings which should ease the overall blow on the markets. Another positive thing going on tonight is the State of the Union address. You will undoubtedly hear optimism about the economy and the future of the United States. Because of this, I expect the Dow to rise 50 to 100 points tomorrow.

As for my shares of Apple Computer Inc, there is fear that Google may open up a music store to compete with Apple and I believe that this, combined with a probable poor day for the tech sector will take Apple lower. I may sell half or all of my shares in Apple in hopes of buying them back later at a better price.

Stocks Cautious Leading into Federal Reserve Meeting

2006-01-30T21:49:00.000-05:00

The Dow dipped a little going into close today which was not outside of expectation knowing that the Federal Reserve was going to meet tomorrow.

OPEC today agreed to keep oil production levels up for the second quarter after most of its members agreed that prices were already too high to cut output. This comes on the back of news that the oil services sector lead in trading today up 2.93%.

Apple Computer Inc closed up 2.97 (4.12%) and did slip a little from profit taking as I expected. After this EOD sell off, I expect bulls to be back on board Tuesday morning and provide for a modest gap – perhaps even as high as a .50 to $1 range. Any late short coverings might also take place tomorrow as the stock appears to be taking a modest upward trend.

Google’s earnings come out tomorrow and I expect them to be solid; however, I am now a little concerned over the price of the stock further down the road. I won’t go into detail now since it’s looking ahead and things can change a lot between now and then. Right now, as a trader, I am looking forward to tomorrow – which I believe to be fair. Please be careful though as I would NOT be holding shares of Google.

To go with Google’s earnings, I expect stocks to trade modestly higher on the confirmation of Judge Samuel Alito and the State of the Union address which occurs tomorrow night. Wall Street has a history of liking optimism and I believe you will be hearing a lot of it during the State of the Union. Stocks might dip a little late on the news of Alan Greenspan retiring and raising interest rates a quarter of a percentage point. I think this will end up being a good week for Wall Street.

Markets Flat Mid-Day Despite Oil Price Rising above $68

2006-01-30T13:35:00.000-05:00

Markets are seeing almost no change going into the afternoon today. I expect that towards close we will see much of the same going into Tuesday ahead of tomorrow's fed meeting.

I am holding onto my shares of Apple Computer Inc (chart above) purchased last Friday. If you are trading Apple, it appears to be facing mild resistance so watch it carefully over the next few bars -- you might be able to sell and pick it up at a better price but I am holding as I expect Apple to go even higher tomorrow going into Wednesday.

Next Week Is A Huge Week

2006-01-29T02:38:00.000-05:00

Tuesday and Wednesday are both big days. Tuesday for the events -- Wednesday for the after effects.

To start off, we have Google earnings coming out. To this date, Google has done an exceptional job generating revenue with its AdSense program. I don’t see the program stalling (heck, they’ve got me now *grins*) so I expect solid earnings from Google.

We also have a Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday lead by the highly charismatic Alan Greenspan. The fed has been hinting at raising interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.5 percent.

The Senate has not decided upon a time to confirm Judge Alito; however, it is preferable that he be confirmed before President Bush’s State of the Union address on Tuesday night. Since Republicans have control of the Senate, look for a strong push to get that confirmation though.

We’ve got quite an important make or break week ahead of us so get on Google and press that “I’m Feeling Lucky” button.

Cut Your Losses & Let Your Winners Run

2006-01-28T15:31:00.000-05:00

This weekend I would like to take some time to go over strategy for newer investors and traders alike. As simple as the concept of cutting your losses may seem, some people don’t really understand it and get too emotional in their investment. Your $10,000 that you have in Cisco Systems is still $10,000 whether you keep it in Cisco or take it out and put it in something else. Just because you got Cisco at $100 a share nearly six years ago, doesn’t mean it holds any more value than someone who just got it yesterday in the $15-$20 range. You shouldn’t care about where a stock has been – you should care about where it is going.

Some people get stuck in the idea that if a stock goes down, it will come back. Stocks don’t always come back from their losses – sometimes you need to learn to cut them and re-invest in something with more potential for growth. You have no reason to stay in a stock that isn’t going anywhere so take out your money and put it in something you think will.

Microsoft Earnings Better Than Expected

2006-01-27T21:25:00.000-05:00

Let’s face it; at this day in age, earnings are made to be beaten. If you can’t beat the bar set for you, your expectations will be lowered to the point where you can meet or beat them.

As I predicted, Microsoft finally hit that point. Don’t expect anything big to come from this and don’t expect long term growth. I view Microsoft as the company which is so large that it becomes very difficult to grow any larger. Sorry X-Box fans, but it wasn’t the X-Box that pushed Microsoft’s stock price. I expect Microsoft to push a little higher towards the end of this year when they release Windows Vista.